قراءة لواقع ومستقبل المنظومة السياسية 

أم الحصم


طرحت حلقة نقاشية بعنوان: «النظام العالمي الجديد» قراءة موجزة لواقع ومستقبل المنظومة السياسية على خريطة العالم بالإضافة إلى موازين القوى والتحالفات الاقتصادية وموقع الأمة العربية والإسلامية على تلك الخارطة.

وتحدث في الندوة التي أقيمت يوم الأحد (15 يونيو/ حزيران 2014) بقاعة فلسطين في مقر جمعية العمل الوطني «وعد» بأم الحصم كل من رئيس جمعية البحرين للشفافية المهندس عبدالنبي العكري، والكاتب أحمد العنيسي، ورئيس تحرير صحيفة «الوسط» منصور الجمري ورئيس جمعية الاقتصاديين جعفر الصايغ حيث ألقى العكري الضوء من خلال ورقته على جوانب تاريخية عالمية منذ تشكيل النظام العالمي في مؤتمر يالطا بين السوفيات والأميركان والبريطانيين عام 1945، مروراَ بالحرب الصينية 1952-1953 انتهاءً عند انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي عام 1991.

الرد الغرائزي العنيف 

وبين الكثير من القراءات والتحول، طرح العكري الرد الغرائزي العنيف الذي واجه الربيع العربي من قبل الأنظمة المستبدة، حيث لم يسلم أي منها (باستثناء المغرب) بالقبول بالإصلاح وتقديم تنازلات، بل سارعت إلى شن الحروب ضد شعوبها كما في ليبيا وسورية واستخدام العنف المفرط كما في مصر والسودان واليمن والبحرين وعمان وآخرين، وهنا انفرط عقد التحالف العربي، تبعاً للمصلحة المحلية والتحالفات الدولية.

وشرح كيف أن النظام العربي يعيش حالاً من الفوضى التي لا سابق لها حيث فشلت الجامعة العربية تماماً في الإمساك بأي قضية عربية أو المبادرة لحلها تاركة الأمر للدول الكبرى وإعطائها التغطية السياسية كما هو الحال في ليبيا وسورية والعراق والصومال المنسي، وبالطبع فلسطين التي تركت في عهدة أميركا، فالعالم العربي الغارق في صراعات مدمرة، وتبعية معظم بلدانه للدول الكبرى، والواقعة بلدانه تحت حكم الاستبداد بمختلف تجلياته المرتهنة حكوماته للأجنبي، ضيع فرصة موجة الثورات الإصلاحية التي عصفت بأوروبا في التسعينات وها هي ثورات الربيع وإن نجحت جزئياً في تونس ومصر إلا أنها أما غارقة في الفوضى كليبيا واليمن، والحرب الأهلية كما في سورية والعراق، أو مجهضة كما في لبنان والبحرين وعمان.

وخلص إلى أنه كلما ازدادت التبعية للقوى الكبرى في النظام العالمي من الصين حتى الولايات المتحدة كلما ازدادت الهوّة الحضارية والمعرفية بين العرب وبقية العالم، من هنا، فإن تصنيف الدول العربية هو الأسوأ في مؤشرات الفساد وغياب الحريات ومشاركة المرأة والديمقراطية والتنمية، والنزاعات المسلحة، والبيئة والجفاف والأمية وحقوق الإنسان.

فرص الطاقة البديلة 

ومن جهته، تناول الكاتب أحمد العنيسي بدائل الطاقة في النظام العالمي الجديد حيث أشار إلى أن هناك فرصاً واعدة في العالم العربي لكن برامج الأبحاث والتطوير ونقل التكنولوجيا والتطبيقات العملية أقل كثيراً مما هو متيسر، وأقل من المطلوب ولا توجد اتجاهات بحثية كما في الدول الصناعية التي بذلت جهوداً خلال الأربعين سنة الماضية وأنفقت الأموال الطائلة في مجال الطاقة البديلة لتحل بدلًا عن النفط.

وتناول تعريف وشرح الطاقة المتجددة أو بدائل الطاقة للوقود الأحفوري ووصفه بأنه موضوع عريض ومتشعب، لكنه ركز على المفاهيم الرئيسية وعلى الطاقات المستخدمة حالياً وهي الطاقة الشمسية وكذلك طاقتي الرياح والمد والجزر، وبالنسبة بالنسبة للطاقة المتجددة أو ما تعرف ببدائل الطاقة، تناول أنواع الطاقات المتجددة المتوافرة ومميزات وعيوب هذه الطاقة.

السلطة الرابعة المتشابكة عالنياً

وفي معرض حديثه عن «الإعلام العالمي» تناول رئيس تحرير صحيفة «الوسط» منصور الجمري تحليل اتجاهات «السلطة الرابعة المتشابكة عالمياً»، باعتبارها السلطة التي لها السطوة الأقوى في تشكيل الرأي العان العالمي، وضرب مثلًا بالقول إنه في منتصف التسعينيات من القرن الماضي كانت الفضائيات هي المسيطرة ولم يكن الحال على ما هو الآن من إعلام رقمي وإنترنت، في حين أن العالم العربي نهض بنموذج جديد من خلال قناة «الجزيرة» في تسعينات اقرن الماضي، لكن الإعلام العربي بصورة عامة فشل حالياً من الإرتقاء بمستواه لما هو مطروح عالمياً في الوقت الحالي. ولذا فإن الإعلام في العالم العربي لا يستطيع أن يشكل رأيه المحلي بالقدرة التي تتوافر لدى وسائل الإعلام في البلدان الغربية وليس لها تأثير عالمي كما نأمل... وللتوضيح أكثر أشار إلى معتقلي غوانتانامو وأبوغريب متسائلًا: «لكن من هو الذي فضح أبوغريب؟ الصحافي الأميركي سيمور هيرش هو من فضح السجن وهو ذاته قال عن نفسه أن هناك أناساً أحسن منه في الدول العربية وأكثر جرأة منه، لكن الفارق بينه وبينهم أنهم لو كتبوا كلمة واحدة مما يكتبه هو لاختفوا «في حين أنني (سيور هيرش) أكتب وأعود إلى أميركا لأنال جائزة جديدة من جوائز بوليتزر». ومنذ 2010، فقد برزت ظاهرة «ويكيليكس» التي بينت أن بإمكان موقع الكتروني أن يهز العالم، ثم جاء بعد ذلك تسريبات إدوارد سنودن، والتي أوضحت ان الصحف العالمية تتعاون مع مصادر التسريب لتوثيقها ونشره، وتوفير نوع من الحماية لمن ينشر معلومات تخبأها الحكومات.

حماية الاقتصاد القادم

وتساءل رئيس جمعية الاجتماعيين جعفر الصايغ ما هي الدولة الراعية للنظام الاقتصادي العالمي؟ هل أميركا قادرة على حماية النظام الرأسمالي كقوة عظمى؟ مشدداً على أن الذي تحتاجه أميركا لتكون قوة عظمى هي تحتاج لحماية النظام الاقتصادي القادم، وتحتاج للوصول إلى تكاليف الدولة العظمى وخصوصاً أنها تواجه تحديات اقتصادية كثيرة، منها على سبيل المثال أن لديها 1000 قاعدة عسكرية موزعة على 130 بلداً في العالم وتكلف هذه القواعد أميركا سنوياً أكثر من 170 مليار دولار، حتى أن نفقات الدفاع بلغت في العام 2013 ما يقارب من 800 مليون دولار.

واختصر الشرح بالقول: «استقرار الدولار واستقرار الدول الحليفة هي أمور تستمد منها الولايات المتحدة الأميركية قوتها وقدرتها... أميركا ستبقى دولة عظمى لكنها لن تتمكن من فرص نظام اقتصادي... ستكون هناك قوى متنوعة في العولمة وما بعدها».

وتطرق في ورقته إلى ما حدث مطلع التسعينيات عند انهيار الكتلة الاشتراكية الذي أذهل المجتمعات التي آمنت بها، والتي كانت تعتقد أن بريطانيا ستشهد ثورة عمالية ستسود هذه الثورة العمالية في العالم، لكن ما حدث هو انهيار الكتلة الاشتراكية، فيما بقي النظام الرأسمالي يتطور ووصل إلى مرحلة النظام الاقتصادي العالمي الجديد والعولمة.

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