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LibyaForum.org التنظيمات المتشددة وإجهاض التحولات الديمقراطية في العالم العربي

التنظيمات المتشددة وإجهاض التحولات الديمقراطية في العالم العربي

راديو سوا


عززت الجماعات المتشددة وجودها في العراق وسورية مستفيدة من الصراعات الدائرة فيهما. ويعتبر مقتل نحو خمسين رهينة مطلع هذا العام على ايدي عناصر تنتمي لتنظيم الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام، بداية بروز هذه الجماعة المتطرفة التي انشقت عن تنظيم القاعدة. وأظهرت تلك الجريمة مدى الخطورة التي أصبحت تشكلها هذه الجماعات، المتمركزة في شمال سورية وشرقها.

وبحسب مؤسسة راند الأميركية للأبحاث الأمنية يـُقدّر عدد المسلحين المتشددين الموجودين في سوريا حاليا بحوالى مائة ألف شخص، ينتمون الى حوالى مائتي جماعة مختلفة. وتقاتل هذه الجماعات لتحقيق هدفيـْن: فهي من جهة تريد الإطاحة بنظام الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد، ومن جهة أخرى تريد إنشاء دولة إسلامية. لكن لا توجد رؤية مشتركة بين مختلف المجموعات لشكيل هذه الدولة.

وتعتبر جبهة النصرة أكبر هذه الجماعات من حيث العدد، إذ يفوق عدد عناصرها خمسة عشر ألف مقاتل. أما مقاتلو داعش فيبلغ عددهم نحو سبعة آلاف مقاتل بحسب مؤسسة راند الأميركية للأبحاث الأمنية أيضا.

أكثر الأعمال دموية تُنسب لجماعة داعش، التي اقدمت مرارا على خطف مدنيين وتعذيبهم وتصفيتهم. ولا يقتصر النشاط المتزايد لهذه الجماعة على سوريا بل أمتد ليشمل العراق أيضا. ففي الأسابيع الأخيرة عززت داعش (الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام) وجودها في محافظة الأنبار بعد أن تغلغلت في مدينتي الرمادي والفلوجة حيث تخوض معارك دامية ضد الجيش العراقي الذي يحاول طردها منهما. وهكذا اتخذ مقاتلو هذه الجماعة من مدن الصحراء ملاجئ لهم.

ويقول علي بكر الباحث في شؤون الجماعات المتشددة في مجلة السياسية الدولية إن الرسالة الأكثر خطورة التي أثارتها سيطرة تنظيم (داعش) مؤخرًا على مدينة الموصل العراقية، هي أن احتمال تشكيل تنظيمات دينية متشددة دويلاتٍ جديدةً في الشرق الأوسط بات أمرًا واقعًا، لا سيما مع تعرض الدولة ذاتها لاهتزازت عنيفة في وظائفها الأمنية.

وينبه مدير مؤسسة الشرق الأدنى والخليج للتحليل العسكري رياض قهوجي إلى أن الحالة العراقية ليست استثناء في الإقليم فثمة حوافز في البنية الجيوسياسية للشرق الأوسط تُشير إلى أن نموذج داعش -ما لم يتم مواجهته- سيكون قابل للتكرار في دول تُعاني من المعضلة الأمنية ذاتها، وخاصة سوريا وليبيا ومصر وغيرها.

وغير بعيد عن ذلك، تبدو درنة في شرق ليبيا موطنًا للجماعات المسلحة المتشددة كأنصار الشريعة وغيرها، بينما هنالك نماذج لا تزال في إطار محاولات السيطرة على بقع جغرافية كتنظيم القاعدة في جنوب اليمن، وبوكو حرام في نيجيريا، والجماعات المتشددة في سيناء.

ويقول خبير الجماعات الاسلامية جمال سلطان إن المقاتلين المتشددين يستغلون احتياجات المواطنين في سوريا والعراق لأجل تحقيق أغراضهم. ففي العراق مثلا يعاني بعض السنة من تهميش حكومة رئيس الوزراء نوري المالكي المنتمي للتيار الإسلامي الشيعي لهم، وهو ما يدفع كثيرا من المناطق ذات الأغلبية السنية، خاصة الواقعة على الحدود السورية، الى التعاطف مع الجماعات السنية المتشددة ظنا منها أن هذه الجماعات قادرة على حمايتها والدفاع عن حقوقها.

بيد أن علي بكر الباحث في شؤون الجماعات المتشددة في مجلة السياسية الدولية يشير إلى سقوط حتمي وسريع لهذه الدويلات أو الامارات التي تسعى الجماعات المتشددة أن تقيمها في مناطق جغرافية من النزاع في العراق وسوريا ، ويشرح ذلك بالقول .

ويـُطرح تساؤل حول ما إذا كانت البيئة الرخوة في الشرق الأوسط، وخاصة بعد ثورات الربيع العربي، كانت حافزا لإقامة دويلات دينية متشددة، لاسيما أن تلك الدول عانت تعثرًا في مساراتها الانتقالية، ونشوءًا لصراعات طائفية ومجتمعية.

ويقول ستيفن هادلي Stephen Hadley مستشار الأمن القومي الأميركي الأسبق إن نمو نفوذ الجماعات المتطرفة في الشرق الأوسط عقب موجات التحرر يعود إلى معضلة النزاعات الطائفية التي نشأت في اطار الدول العربية التي شهدت موجة الربيع العربي.

وثمة ملاحظة مطردة تم تسجيلها في العديد من الحالات بحسب أحد الابحاث التي نشرتها جامعة هارفارد حول التحولات الديمقراطية، تفيد بأنه كلما نضجت شروط التحول أو أخذ التحول السياسي مسارا استراتيجيا، أو اتجهت الانتفاضات الشعبية اتجاها حاسما كلما برزت إلى السطح التنظيمات الجهادية المتشددة كعائق حقيقي أمام هذه التحولات.

ويتفق مع هذا الطرح علي بكر الباحث في شؤون الجماعات المتشددة في مجلة السياسية الدولية، ويرى أن الربيع العربي ألقى بتبعات أمنية على الحدود بين الدول العربية ما أدى إلى نمو التيارات المتشددة.

لكن مدير مؤسسة الشرق الأدنى والخليج للتحليل العسكري رياض قهوجي يلقي باللائمة على الأنظمة المستبدة التي يقول إنها لعبت بورقة الطائفية لمجابهة نداءات التغيير، وهو ما كان بمثابة حافز أساسي لنمو نفوذ جماعات متشددة على اساس مذهبي.

وكذلك يرى خبير الجماعات الاسلامية جمال سلطان أن انسداد الأفق السياسي في دول الربيع العربي أدى إلى جنوح تيارات سياسية شبابية إلى العنف في بعض الأحيان.

ويـُنظر إلى التجربة التونسية على أنها كانت الأنجح في مجابهة نمو التيارات المتشددة في البلاد، عبر تحقيق انتقال ديمقراطي سلمي مع تحقيق اجماع سياسي. فإقرار دستور في البلاد وقرب اجراء الانتخابات البرلمانية والرئاسية قطع الطريق على تداعيات امنية خطيرة كانت تنذر بدخول تونس مرحلة انهيار أمني يشجع على نمو التيارات المتشددة كتيار أنصار الشريعة الذي هدد مرارا أركان الدولة الناشئة باغتيال معارضين بارزين محسوبين على التيار العلماني كشكري بلعيد.

وإنطلاقا من ذلك يقول ستيفن هادلي Stephen Hadley مستشار الأمن القومي الأميركي الأسبق إن التسامح والمشاركة في الحكم خاصة مع وجود اختلافات عرقية ومذهبية وايديولوجية في كل دولة عربية، سيساهم في تخطي عثرات طريق الديمقراطية.

ويحذر علي بكر الباحث في شؤون الجماعات المتشددة في مجلة السياسية الدولية من تراجع الديمقراطية في العالم العربي اثر نمو نفوذ الجماعات المتشددة التي تستغل فشل الدول في تسوية نزاعاتها القائمة.

هذا فيما يتوقع مدير مؤسسة الشرق الأدنى والخليج للتحليل العسكري رياض قهوجي أن تتراجع نداءات التغيير والمطالبة بالحريات في العالم العربي نتيجة التداعيات الأمنية السلبية لها على العديد من الدول العربية.

ويدعو خبير الجماعات الاسلامية جمال سلطان إلى موقف غربي أكثر حسما تجاه الأنظمة المستبدة في العالم العربي وذلك بدعم قوى التغيير في معركتها مع التنظيمات المتشددة العابرة للحدود.

رغم اختلاف المسمى فإن دول الربيع العربي كافة شهدت تصاعدا لنمو الجماعات الجهادية المتشددة، إذ تكاد تــُرسم الصورة نفسها والمشاهد التي تتحدث عن تدشين امارة أو اقامة دولة، وهذا يهدد بالإجهاز على التحولات أو تعطيلها أو توجيهها في مسار آخر، ليصبح نجاح الانتقال الديمقراطي في العالم العربي أمام مواجهتين حاسمتين: أولها، ضد أنظمة مستبدة تحاول ألا تسقط، وثانيها، ضد الجماعات الجهادية المتشددة التي تزكي الطائفية وتجهض التحول عبر جغرافيا ما سمته دولة الخلافة.

راديو سوا


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