ليبيا .. صراع السلاح والسياسة 

احمد سيد احمد


تعكس موجة العنف الدموية الحالية فى طرابلس وبنغازى طبيعة الصراع الحقيقى فى ليبيا بين السياسة والسلاح, وتطوره وتعمقه على مستوى الدولة والمجتمع ويدفع باتجاه الانفجار بين مكونات المجتمع وأطيافه السياسية.

فالقتال الدائر حول مطار طرابلس منذ أسبوعين يرتبط بشكل مباشر بفشل العملية السياسية والصراع الحاد بين القوى الإسلامية, وعلى رأسها حزب العدالة والبناء, وبين تحالف القوى الوطنية الذى يضم فى غالبيته رموز وأنصار نظام القذافى السابق, كما أنه يرتبط بنتائج انتخابات مجلس النواب الأخيرة, والتى أظهرت مؤشراتها تقدم تحالف القوى الوطنية, وكذلك بالصراع الدائر منذ شهور بين أنصار اللواء المتقاعد خليفة حفتر وبين الإسلاميين, فى إطار معركة استعادة كرامة ليبيا, حيث شنت قوات حفظ أمن واستقرار ليبيا, والتى تتكون من ميليشيات ثوار مصراتة الإسلامية, هجوما على ثوار الزنتان, الصوعق والقعقاع, الذين يسيطرون على مطار طرابلس منذ سقوط القذافى عام 2011, ويتهمونهم بأنهم يقاتلون إلى جانب حفتر ويؤون ضباط من جيش القذافى فى صفوفهم.

تداعيات الموجة الدموية الحالية أنها ليست فقط تهدد بتصاعد الصراع المسلح فى كبريات مدن ليبيا طرابلس وبنغازى وانتشاره إلى بقية المدن, واتساع دائرة العنف, الذى عكسه حجم التدمير الهائل للمطار والطائرات المدنية, والتى تجاوزت المليار دولار, والنزوح والإجلاء الجماعى للأجانب, بل الأخطر انه يمثل لغما حقيقيا وعقبة كبرى أمام مجلس النواب الجديد الذى سوف يتسلم السلطة من المؤتمر الوطنى العام الشهر المقبل, ويعيق تقدم العملية السياسية واستكمال خطواتها خاصة كتابة الدستور الجديد الدائم والانتخابات الرئاسية, ويدفع المجلس إلى الانزلاق إلى أتون الصراعات والتحديات التى وقع فيها المؤتمر الوطنى. إضافة لانتشار شظايا الصراع فى ليبيا على دول الجوار ومخاطر أن تتحول إلى دولة لتصدير العنف والإرهاب وتهريب الأسلحة فى ظل هلامية وسيولة الحدود الليبية خاصة الجنوبية.

إشكالية ليبيا الحقيقية وجوهر الأزمة وغياب أى آفاق لحلها, تتمثل فى, أولا فشل الأطراف والقوى المختلفة, إسلامية أو ليبرالية أو قوى النظام القديم فى إدارة خلافاتها السياسية عبر الحوار والتفاوض والتوافق واللجوء إلى العنف والسلاح فى إدارتها، ساعد فى ذلك عسكرة المجتمع الليبى واستقواء كل فصيل بميليشياته المسلحة, وثانيا غياب ثقافة الديمراطية والتعايش بين الأطياف السياسية والقبلية المختلفة وإدارة اللعبة السياسية وفقا لنظرية المباراة الصفرية, فكل طرف يسعى للقضاء على الطرف الآخر, ولذا فمشكلة ليبيا كغيرها من ثورات الربيع العربى أنها ديمقراطية بلا ديمقراطيين يمارسون ثقافة الاختلاف والتسامح والتعايش وتحويل تلك الاختلافات إلى عامل ثراء، وإنما لعامل صراع وتوتر، ولذا فى الوقت الذى تحتكم فيه ليبيا إلى عملية سياسية ديمقراطية عبر آلية الانتخابات, فإن أطرافها يمارسون السياسة بلغة الإقصاء وثقافة القبلية, والمحصلة الطبيعية لذلك هو تعثر تقدم العملية السياسية الحقيقية, وخسارة الدولة والمجتمع الليبى فرص التقدم وبناء الدولة وتوظيف الموارد وتحقيق التنمية والتلاحم بين كل أبناء الشعب.

وفى ظل انتشار الميليشيات المسلحة فى كل أرجاء البلاد وغياب الدولة المركزية ومؤسساتها الأمنية الوطنية, والاستقطاب الحاد بين الإسلاميين والليبراليين والصراع بين الثوار وأنصار النظام القديم خاصة فى ظل قانون العزل الذي يستبعد جزءا كبيرا من المجتمع الليبى من العملية السياسية, وفى ظل غياب رؤية موحدة بين ثوار 17 فبراير حول شكل ومستقبل الدولة الليبية وأولوياتها الحقيقية بعد سقوط القذافى, كان طبيعيا أن تحدث المخرجات الحالية من تعثر للعملية السياسية واستمرار العنف والصراع بين القوى والأطراف المختلفة, وحالة الضبابية حول مستقبل البلاد والمسار الذى تتجه إليه.

لن تجدى العملية السياسية فى ليبيا نفعا مادام استمر رهان الأطراف المختلفة على الحل العسكرى ولغة السلاح فى إدارة خلافاتهم وتوجيه العملية السياسية وفقا لأهوائهم وتوجهاتهم, فالنتيجة الحتمية لأى صراع مسلح هو خسارة الجميع وتدمير البلاد, ولن تخرج البلاد من هذا الطريق الوعر سوى بالاحتكام إلى لغة الحوار والتوافق, وإزالة الألغام المتعددة وأبرزها إلغاء قانون العزل وإحتواء أنصار النظام السابق فى العملية السياسية, مع استبعاد كل من تلوثت أيديهم بالدماء, كذلك لن تفلح الثورة المضادة فى القضاء على ثورة 17 فبراير وإعادة التاريخ إلى الوراء, إضافة إلى لغم الميليشيات المسلحة, التى تحل محل الدولة, وأهمية نزع تلك الأسلحة واستيعاب تلك الميليشيات فى جيش وطنى موحد قادر على بسط الأمن وحماية العملية السياسية, والعمل الجاد من جانب مجلس النواب الجديد على إعادة بناء مؤسسة الدولة ونزع الشرعية عن أى قوى أو فصيل يحاول اختطافها ويسعى للتخلص من الفصائل الأخرى, وتصحيح الخلل فى العملية السياسية, والإسراع فى تحقيق التنمية وتوظيف موارد البلاد الطبيعية الهائلة من النفط فى القضاء على مشكلات البطالة, خاصة بين شباب الثوار, وقبل ذلك كله توافق ثوار ليبيا على رؤية موحدة ومسار محدد من الديمقراطية والحرية والتنمية لبلادهم, ودون ذلك فليس مستبعدا أن يؤدى الصراع الحالى إلى أن تصبح ليبيا دولة فاشلة.

الاهرام


Email Drucken Favoriten Twitter Facebook Myspace Stumbleupon Digg MR. Wong Technorati aol blogger google reddit Yahoo

Comments  

 
0 # LibyaForum.orglike viagra 2015-03-21 04:10
Do you have a spam problem on this blog; I also am a blogger, and I was wanting to know your situation; many of us have developed some nice procedures and we
are looking to swap strategies with other folks, be sure to shoot me an email
if interested.

Feel free to surf to my blog post ... like viagra: canadianedrugstore.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis bph 2015-04-08 13:55
I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought
this post was great. I don't know who you are but certainly
you're going to a famous blogger if you are not already ;) Cheers!


my weblog: cialis bph: pillsedweb.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcheap flights miami 2015-04-16 05:37
It's great that you are getting thoughts from this post as well as from our dialogue made
at this place.

Also visit my website :: cheap flights miami
to las vegas: cheapflightslasvegasus.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcanadian cialis 2015-04-25 08:03
Thanks for the marvelous posting! I quite enjoyed reading it, you are a great author.I will remember to bookmark your
blog and will eventually come back sometime soon.
I want to encourage one to continue your great work, have a nice morning!


my website ... canadian cialis: myedcanadian.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCialis generic 2015-05-06 06:29
Hi there everybody, here every one is sharing these familiarity, so it's nice to read this webpage, and I used
to pay a quick visit this webpage every day.

my blog - Cialis generic
canadian: canadianedrugstore.com/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCialis by mail 2015-05-08 07:59
I am really impressed along with your writing abilities and also with
the layout in your weblog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it your self?

Either way stay up the nice high quality writing,
it's rare to look a great blog like this one today..


Feel free to visit my website Cialis
by mail canada: canadianedrugstore.com/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orglilly cialis coupon 2015-05-14 05:56
A person essentially help to make significantly
articles I'd state. This is the first time I frequented
your website page and so far? I surprised with the analysis you made
to make this particular post incredible. Great task!


Feel free to surf to my page ... lilly cialis coupon: mississaugachinese.ca/.../...
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCanadian pharmacy 2015-05-21 21:58
When I originally commented I clicked the
"Notify me when new comments are added" checkbox
and now each time a comment is added I get three e-mails with the same comment.
Is there any way you can remove me from that service?
Cheers!

my weblog; Canadian pharmacy: canadianpharmacy2015.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgclozaril 2015-06-04 16:19
Every weekend i used to visit this website, for the reason that
i want enjoyment, since this this site conations genuinely fastidious funny stuff too.


My blog :: clozaril: medicshop365.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgprednisone 2015-06-11 15:08
Hi there! Someone in my Myspace group shared this website with us so I came to take a look.
I'm definitely enjoying the information.
I'm bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers!
Outstanding blog and brilliant design and style.

Feel free to surf to my blog post :: prednisone: iitd.info/jbHH
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcanadian pharmacies 2015-06-30 17:48
Hey! I understand this is sort of off-topic however I had to
ask. Does building a well-established blog such as yours require a large amount of work?
I am brand new to writing a blog but I do write in my journal everyday.

I'd like to start a blog so I can share my experience and feelings online.
Please let me know if you have any kind of suggestions or tips for new aspiring
bloggers. Appreciate it!

Review my weblog ... canadian pharmacies shipping to usa: canadianpharmaciesshippingtousa365.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCialis 2015-07-02 00:43
I got this website from my pal who informed me concerning this web site and now this time I am visiting
this website and reading very informative content at this
place.

Feel free to surf to my homepage ... Cialis: tianyaxiaozhan.com/.../1sCF8Qm
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCialis 2015-07-04 05:12
Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to
my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter
updates. I've been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this.
Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy
reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.


Feel free to surf to my weblog Cialis: talk.maulnet.ru/.../bquumx
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis 2015-07-05 08:32
Does your website have a contact page? I'm having trouble locating it but, I'd like to send you an email.
I've got some recommendations for your blog you might be interested in hearing.
Either way, great site and I look forward to seeing
it improve over time.

Here is my webpage cialis: www.yayabay.com/.../bquumx
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis 2015-07-06 11:27
Great article! We will be linking to this great post on our website.
Keep up the good writing.

Visit my blog post; cialis: heart.web5.jp/.../bquumx
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis 2015-07-07 16:56
Hi, i believe that i noticed you visited my website thus i got here to go
back the prefer?.I am attempting to find issues to improve my website!I assume its good enough to use a few of your ideas!!


Also visit my page :: cialis: tracking.v-sept.net/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis 2015-07-13 01:43
I simply couldn't go away your site before suggesting that I extremely loved
the standard information a person provide to your visitors?
Is gonna be back frequently in order to check out
new posts

Feel free to visit my web-site cialis: www.kmusa.lt/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcanadian pharmacy 2015-07-13 08:26
Hi, constantly i used to check website posts here in the early
hours in the break of day, as i enjoy to find out more and
more.

my web blog - canadian pharmacy: www.spreadsunshine.ca/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcanadian pharmacy 2015-07-14 20:40
Howdy! I could have sworn I've been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the
posts I realized it's new to me. Nonetheless, I'm certainly pleased I stumbled
upon it and I'll be book-marking it and checking back often!

My homepage ... canadian pharmacy: paritaetische-lebenshilfe.net/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgpharmacy 2015-08-08 18:06
First off I would like to say awesome blog! I had a quick question which I'd like to
ask if you don't mind. I was curious to know how you center yourself and clear your mind before writing.
I have had a difficult time clearing my thoughts in getting my ideas out.
I truly do enjoy writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15
minutes are lost simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or tips?

Cheers!

Visit my web site pharmacy: canadian-pharmacy777.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis women 2015-09-05 15:35
I am really happy to readd thiis web site posts which
includes lots of helpful facts, thaanks for providing these data.


Here is my webpage :: cialis women: canadianpharmacyusa24h.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis prescription 2015-09-15 10:53
Unquestionably believe thhat which you said. Yourr favourite reason appeared to be at the net the simplest factor
to have in mind of.I say to you, I definitely geet annoyed even as other folks think about worries that they plainly
ddo noot understand about. You ccontrolled to hit the nail upon thhe top ass well as
defined out the entire thing with no need side-effects , other people copuld
take a signal. Will probably be back to get more.
Thanks

Also visit my web blog: cialis prescription: tinyurl.com/q35xhq4
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis long does it 2015-09-17 08:39
If some one wihes to be updated with most up-to-date technologies afterward he must be go to see this website aand be up to date daily.


My blog post ... cialis long does it
last: tiny.cc/x4sx2x
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgfree cialis offer 2015-09-18 10:14
I'm really enjoying the design and layout of your blog.
It's a very easy on the eyes whjch makes it much more enjoyable for me to come here
and visit more often. Did you hire out a desgner to create your theme?
Exceptional work!

Allso visit mmy homepage free
cialis offer: bit.ly/1NhvT1y
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis tablets 20mg 2015-09-20 23:42
Hi there, I found your site via Google while
looking for a coparable topic, your webdite came up, it seems
to be good. I've bookmarked it in my googl bookmarks.

Hi there, just turbed into aware of your weblog thru Google, and found that it is really informative.
I'm gonna bbe careful for brussels. I'll be grateful if you proceed thbis in future.
Lots of folks might be benefited out of your writing.
Cheers!

Here is my web blog :: cialis tablets 20mg: ow.ly/RPigm
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgdoes cialis look 2015-09-21 19:41
Hi there! I know this is kind of offf topic but I was wondering
if you knew where I could locate a caaptcha plugin for myy comment form?
I'm using the same blog platform as yours and I'm having problems finding
one? Thanks a lot!

My weblog :: does cialis look like: goo.gl/jljSZx
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis free trial 2015-09-21 20:06
Saved as a favorite, I love your site!

Feel free to visit my website :: cialis free trial offer: is.gd/KEj5dd
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis 20mg price 2015-10-05 17:40
I am not sure the place you're getting your information, but good topic.
I must spend a while finding out much more or
figuring out more. Thanks for fantastic information I used to be
in search of this info for my mission.

Also visit my blog post: cialis 20mg price at walmart: firstcanadianpharm.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis canada 2015-10-17 10:04
Hello would you mind letting mme know which webhost you're using?
I've loaded your bog in 3 completely different ibternet browsers and I
must say this blog loads a lot faster then most. Cann
you recommend a good hosting provider at a fair price?
Thanks a lot, I appreciate it!

Feel free to surf to my weblog; cialis canada: fhc.io/wPlek
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcanadian pharmacy 2015-10-17 10:35
Today, I went to tthe beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to myy 4 yearr old daughter and said "You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear." Shee placed the shell to her
ear aand screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and
it pinchbed her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!


Take a look at my web-site; canadian pharmacy cialis: tiny.cc/wk8r4x
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcialis pills for 2015-10-18 16:51
Thanks forr ones marveloous posting! I truly enjoyed reading
it, you will be a gresat author. I will make certain to bookmark your
blog andd wikl eventuallly colme back at some point.
I want to encourage you to definitely continue your great posts, have a nice
weekend!

My blog: cialis pills for
sale: canadianpharmacyrxwww.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgbest place to buy 2015-10-20 11:28
Hi i am kavin, its my first time to commenting anyplace,
when i read this article i thought i could also make comment due to this sensible article.



Feel free to surf to my weblog; best place to buy cialis canada: canadapharmacyshippingusa.com
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCialis cost cvs 2015-11-14 10:57
Please let me know if you're looking for a author for your weblog.
You have some really great posts and I believe I would be a good asset.
If you ever want to take some of the load off, I'd really like to write some material for your blog in exchange for a
link back to mine. Please send me an e-mail if interested.
Kudos!

Check out my page Cialis cost cvs: pharmacy-shipping.com/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCialis walmart 2015-11-15 14:01
Nice post. I learn something totally new and challenging on sites I stumbleupon on a daily basis.
It will always be exciting to read articles from other authors and use something from other websites.



my web page: Cialis walmart: pharmacy-shipping.com/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCialis no doctor 2015-11-15 19:24
My brother suggested I might like this website. He was totally right.
This post actually made my day. You can not imagine just
how much time I had spent for this information! Thanks!


Also visit my site Cialis no doctor: pharmacy-shipping.com/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgfind car insurance 2015-12-01 05:23
Touche. Solid arguments. Keep up the amazing spirit.


Also visit my web page find car insurance: cisbusiness.info/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcar insurance nyc 2015-12-02 06:05
It is appropriate time to make some plans for the future and it's time
to be happy. I've read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you few interesting
things or suggestions. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article.
I want to read even more things about it!

Feel free to surf to my web page - car insurance nyc: fingerpulla.com/.../...
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgbuy cialis in canada 2015-12-21 01:05
I was recommended this website by my cousin. I am
now not sure whether this submit is written via him as nobody
else recognize such particular approximately my trouble.
You are wonderful! Thank you!

Look at my homepage :: buy cialis
in canada: canadapricespharmacy.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcheap car insurance 2016-03-16 13:24
It's actually a great and helpful piece of info.

I'm satisfied that you simply shared this useful information with us.
Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.

Visit my weblog ... cheap
car insurance: a.bookdepository.com/.../...
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcheap car insurance 2016-03-23 17:08
This site was... how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I've found something whiich
helped me. Thaanks a lot!

My web page :: cheap car insurance: t.signauxcinq.com/.../
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcheap car insurance 2016-03-24 01:36
Ahaa, its fastidious convversation on the topic of
this piece of writing at this place at this webpage, Ihave read all that, so now me also commenting at thijs place.


Feel free tto visit myy page; cheap car
insurance: www.centauro.com.br/.../iqiPb1
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgcheap car insurance 2016-03-24 20:35
What i do not understood is in fact how you are no longer actually much more smartly-liked thjan you might be right now.
You are soo intelligent. You know therdfore
considerably when iit comes to this matter, produced me individually imagine
it fropm numerous numerous angles. Its like
men and women don't see to be involved except it is one thing to do with Woman gaga!
Your individual stuffs great. Always deal with it
up!

Look at my page cheap car
insurance: sns.17xuexi.com/.../iqiPb1
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCheap car insurance 2016-03-24 23:53
I've read some excellent stuff here. Certainly worth bookmarking for revisiting.
I wonder how sso much attempt you place tto create this type of wonderful informative web site.


Feel free to surf to my blog post :: Cheap car insurance: www.yasni.pl/.../iqiPb1
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgCheap car insurance 2016-04-01 18:27
Asking questions are truly pleasant thing if you are not understanding anything completely,
however this post offers fastidious understanding even.

my web blog :: Cheap car insurance: acheapinsus.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgwalgreens drug store 2016-04-23 07:18
I go to see each day a few sites and information sites to read content,
however this weblog gives quality based posts.

Here is my web blog; walgreens drug store: edcanadiandrugstore.com/
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgdyson animal vacuum 2016-05-01 10:46
It is appropriate time to make some plans for the future and it
is time to be happy. I've read this post and if I could
I wish to suggest you few interesting things or advice.
Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article.
I want to read more things about it!

my blog post :: dyson animal vacuum: is.gd/poEGvw
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
0 # LibyaForum.orgthis page 2016-07-04 18:17
Great article.

my web-site ... this page: goo.gl/bc9AWn
Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 

Add comment


Security code
Refresh